Bivariate Drought Frequency Curves and Confidence Intervals: A Case Study Using Monthly Rainfall Generation

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

1-1-2013

Publication Title

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment

Abstract

Although water resources management practices recently use bivariate distribution functions to assess drought severity and its frequency, the lack of systematic measurements is the major hindrance in achieving quantitative results. This study aims to suggest a statistical scheme for the bivariate drought frequency analysis to provide comprehensive and consistent drought severities using observed rainfalls and their uncertainty using synthesized rainfalls. First, this study developed a multi-variate regression model to generate synthetic monthly rainfalls using climate variables as causative variables. The causative variables were generated to preserve their correlations using copula functions. This study then focused on constructing bivariate drought frequency curves using bivariate kernel functions and estimating their confidence intervals from 1,000 likely replica sets of drought frequency curves. The confidence intervals achieved in this study may be useful for making a comprehensive drought management plan through providing feasible ranges of drought severity. © 2012 Springer-Verlag.

DOI

10.1007/s00477-012-0588-7

Volume

27

Issue

1

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