Date of Award

Summer 8-3-2022

Degree Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Arts in Economics

Department

Economics

First Advisor

Ngo, Phuong

Second Advisor

Kosteas, Bill

Third Advisor

Grossmann, Aycan

Subject Headings

Economic theory, Economics, Health Care

Abstract

I examine changes in Medicaid coverage and insurance status surrounding a work requirement policy implemented within the Arkansas Medicaid demonstration waiver. The policy applied to able-bodied, childless adults, aged 30 to 49, not enrolled as students, and was effective from 2018 to 2019. Eligibility was conditional on policy compliance. Taking a sample from the IPUMS American Community Survey database, I use triple-differences modeling to compare Arkansans subject to the policy with unaffected Arkansans and individuals from a set of control states. I find that the policy pilot group in Arkansas was less likely to be insured or have Medicaid coverage in the two years after the work requirement took effect, compared with controls. In 2018 and 2019 respectively, I estimate increases in uninsurance for the pilot group, compared with non-pilot Arkansans, were 7.3 and 10.8 percentage points greater than those experienced by the hypothetical pilot and non-pilot groups from the control states. Similarly, I estimate declines in Medicaid coverage for pilot versus non-pilot-group Arkansans were 6.2 and 10.2 percentage points greater in magnitude, compared with the hypothetical pilot and non-pilot groups from the control states in 2018 and 2019 respectively. In tandem with a series of robustness checks, I outline how asymmetric information, unobservable government intervention, and contemporaneous policies could affect my results.

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