# Analytic confusion matrix bounds for fault detection and isolation using a sum-of-squared-residuals approach

#### Abstract

This paper presents a game theory approach to the constrained state estimation of linear discrete time dynamic systems. In the application of state estimators, there is often known model or signal information that is either ignored or dealt with heuristically. For example, constraints on the state values (which may be based on physical considerations) are often neglected because they do not easily fit into the structure of the state estimator. This paper develops a method for incorporating state equality constraints into a minimax state estimator. The algorithm is demonstrated on a simple vehicle tracking simulation.

Given a system which can fail in 1 of n different ways, a fault detection and isolation (FDI) algorithm uses sensor data to determine which fault is the most likely to have occurred. The effectiveness of an FDI algorithm can be quantified by a confusion matrix, also called a diagnosis probability matrix, which indicates the probability that each fault is isolated given that each fault has occurred. Confusion matrices are often generated with simulation data, particularly for complex systems. In this paper, we perform FDI using sum-of-squared residuals (SSRs). We assume that the sensor residuals are s-independent and Gaussian, which gives the SSRs chi-squared distributions. We then generate analytic lower, and upper bounds on the confusion matrix elements. This approach allows for the generation of optimal sensor sets without numerical simulations. The confusion matrix bounds are verified with simulated aircraft engine data.

*This paper has been withdrawn.*